According to Andre Dragosch, a significant portion of the SOH oil supply deficit, estimated between 25% and 50%, may remain unresolved if the current closure endures over a prolonged period. This scenario poses potential implications for oil trading and global energy markets.

According to @godbole17, market chatter that Venezuela could quickly raise oil output to 3 million bpd under Trump is overhyped because such a ramp requires large capital investment and time, limiting the odds of a near-term supply surge (source: @godbole17 on X). He adds that, if oil supply ultimately rises, the transmission would be lower inflation, higher probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a bullish setup for BTC as crypto risk appetite improves, while referencing The Kobeissi Letter’s context on Venezuela’s reduced output versus 15 years ago (source: @godbole17 on X; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X).